Nominations for the Ontario provincial election closed Thursday at 2 p.m. and three weeks today we will wake up to a new government for Ontario.

With 20 days of campaigning to go, the one certain thing is that campaigns matter. Remember it will take 54 seats to win a majority at Queens Park.

Now, I know it is a bit of a mug's game but Thursday the good folks at democraticSPACE released its best guess on the outcome of the election http://www.democraticspace.com/ON-projections.pdf . democraticSPACE is a non-partisan web site though its founder, Greg Morrow, is a past National chair of the Green Party of Canada. I always like to track its election estimates and this one gives the Liberals a narrow minority win with the Progressive Conservatives second and the NDP holding the balance of power. Remember that at dissolution the Liberals held 70 seats, the Progressive Conservative 25 and the NDP 10. Two seats were vacant.

The democraticSPACE analysis states the obvious. The election will be decided in the GTA. But it also concludes that a third of the seats in the province are too close to call. A number of Liberal MPPs chose retirement rather than fight what, a few months ago, looked like a losing battle. (Opposition doesn't look that appealing after eight years of power.) The Tories and NDP are focusing on many of those ridings.

Tory leader, Tim Hudak, is spending the day in the GTA. This afternoon he'll be joining former Ontario Progressive Conservative leader, John Tory, for Tory's Live Drive talk show at Newstalk 1010. A few days ago Tory took issue with Hudak on the "foreign worker" controversy saying Hudak was "stirring up envy and negativity" so it will be fun to listen in to that interview.

The details haven't been released yet but Hudak will spend the weekend campaigning in the GTA. It will be interesting to see what ridings he is sent to. Leader visits can energize a local campaign and the volunteers who are so important at the local level. Many of the 905 ridings around Toronto are very competitive but there are indications that what was a clear Tory advantage a month ago is now very much in doubt. Hudak will be on LeDrew Live next Friday night for a one-on-one chat with Stephen.

The slow but steady rise of the NDP could help the Tories by taking votes from the Liberals. If this race stays close watch for the Liberals to tell voters that a vote for the NDP will mean a Progressive Conservative government.

Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty is in southwestern Ontario but again today he has only two campaign events - one in Windsor and then a stop in Cambridge. No word yet on what the Liberal campaign has planned for the weekend.

NDP leader, Andrea Horwath, is back in northern Ontario today. The NDP think they can pick up at least two seats in the north. Horwath will spend another day in the north on Saturday and then campaign in Toronto on Sunday.

Ten days in with 20 to go. Save those seat projections. It will be fun to look back at them on October 7.