CTVNews.ca will have exclusive polling data each morning throughout the federal election campaign. Check back each morning to see the latest from a three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research - CTV News and the Globe and Mail’s official pollster.
The federal Liberals’ advantage over the Conservatives has narrowed to five points on Day 16 of the federal election campaign.
A three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research ending April 6 has the Liberals at 43 per cent over the Conservatives who are at 38 per cent nationally.
The New Democratic Party remains at eight per cent—a mark they hit yesterday and a “new numeric low” for the party—followed by the Bloc Quebecois (seven per cent), Green Party of Canada (three per cent) and the People’s Party of Canada (two per cent).
“The one thing we do know is that U.S. President Trump has not been looming large in the Canadian mindset for the last number of days - especially compared to the period leading up to his ‘Liberation Day’,” said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist at Nanos Research and official pollster for CTV News and the Globe and Mail.
In recent days, Nanos said there have been “no knock-out punches between the federal leaders, no major changes in strategy -- just a regular campaign if there ever is such a thing. We do know that research completed for The Globe and Mail/CTV News last week shows that Canadians believe the Carney Liberals have the advantage when tension between Canada and the U.S. is high. Reduce that focus and more of a horse race emerges.”
Regional support
The Conservatives are seeing gains in seat-rich Ontario, where they now sit at 42 per cent. The Liberals, meanwhile, have dropped several points in the province over the past few days and now sit at 49 per cent.
The Liberals, however, continue to lead in every region except the Prairies, where the Conservatives dominate with 57 per cent of those surveyed backing them -- versus 28 per cent for the Liberals.
The Liberals are maintaining their lead in Quebec but are down another four points compared to yesterday and sit at 44 per cent, compared with the Conservatives who remain at 16 per cent. The Bloc Quebecois, meanwhile, are up a few points since yesterday and are at 29 per cent in the province.
Who is preferred prime minister?
When it comes to whom Canadians prefer as prime minister, Carney remains ahead significantly with 50 per cent choosing him over Poilievre, who has risen slightly to 32 per cent.
Gender divide
A gender breakdown of Nanos tracking shows women are more likely to vote for the Liberals than men. Forty-nine per cent of women surveyed said they would support the Liberals; compared with 30 per cent who’d vote Conservative.
Meanwhile, the number of men who said they would vote Liberal is at 37 per cent compared with 46 per cent for the Conservatives.
Important issues
Nanos pointed out with the gap between the frontrunners narrowing, the campaign could be entering a period where a focus on non-Trump issues such as “jobs, the cost of living, housing, taxes and such will be more on the minds of voters.”
“In that respect, without a major Trump threat we are likely entering a more ‘normal’ period with a focus on a diversity of issues.”
Methodology
CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos Research tracking survey, April 4 to 6, 2025, n=1,285, accurate 2.7 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
