CTVNews.ca will have exclusive polling data each morning throughout the federal election campaign. Check back each morning to see the latest from a three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research - CTV News and the Globe and Mail’s official pollster.
The Liberals are ahead by five points over the Conservatives on Day 22 of the 36-day federal election campaign.
A three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research ending April 12 has the Liberals at 44 per cent over the Conservatives who are at 39 per cent nationally.
The New Democratic Party is at 9, followed by the Bloc Quebecois (5 per cent), Green Party of Canada (two per cent) and the People’s Party of Canada (one per cent).
“What is striking about this election is the consolidation of votes around the two front running parties,” said Nik Nanos, chief data scientists at Nanos Research and the official pollster for CTV News and the Globe and Mail.
“Together, as of last night 83 per cent of Canadians are voting either Liberal (44%) or Conservative (39%). As context, in the last election about 67 percent of Canadians voted for the Conservatives or the Liberals. The frontrunners are crushing the rest of the parties.”
Regional support
Regionally, Liberal support remains strongest in Ontario, Atlantic Canada and Quebec; while Conservative support is the strongest in the Prairies and British Columbia.
In seat-rich Ontario the Conservatives are at 37 per cent -- versus the Liberals who are at 52 per cent.
In the Prairies, the Conservatives continue to dominate with 59 per cent of those surveyed backing them, versus 29 per cent for the Liberals; and in B.C., Conservatives have pulled ahead at 44 per cent and lead the Liberals (38 per cent) by six points.
The Liberals continue their strong lead in Quebec and are at 45 per cent, compared with the Conservatives at 22. The Bloc Quebecois are in second place at 23 per cent.
The Liberals’ lead in the Atlantic is 10 per cent, with 52 per cent of those surveyed backing them, versus 42 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP are far behind in the region at 5 per cent.
Who is preferred prime minister?
When it comes to whom Canadians prefer as prime minister, Carney still has a comfortable lead, with 49 per cent choosing him over Poilievre, who sits at 35 per cent.
By gender and age
A gender breakdown of Nanos tracking shows women continue to be more likely to vote Liberal than men. Fifty per cent of women surveyed said they would support the Liberals, compared with 32 per cent who’d vote Conservative. Eleven per cent of women back the NDP.
Meanwhile, the number of men who said they would vote Liberal is at 38 per cent, compared with 46 for the Conservatives. Only five per cent of men surveyed would vote NDP.
Conservatives continue to do better than the Liberals among voters under 35, while the Liberals do better among older voters. Fifty cent of those aged 55 and up said they would back the Liberals, versus 36 for the Conservatives in that age range.
For those 18 to 34, Conservatives are at 41 per cent, versus 37 per cent for the Liberals.
Methodology
CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos Research tracking survey, April 10 to 12, 2025, n=1,285, accurate 2.7 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
