CTVNews.ca will have exclusive polling data each morning throughout the federal election campaign. Check back each morning to see the latest from a three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research - CTV News and the Globe and Mail’s official pollster.
The Liberals have opened up a seven-point lead over the Conservatives on Day 23 of the 36-day federal election campaign.
A three-day rolling sample by Nanos Research ending April 13 has the Liberals at 45 per cent (up a point) over the Conservatives (down one) who are at 38 per cent nationally.
The New Democratic Party is at 9, followed by the Bloc Quebecois (six per cent), Green Party of Canada (two per cent) and the People’s Party of Canada (one per cent).
“The four point Liberal advantage from a week ago has marginally widened but is not as significant as the one time 11-point Liberal lead earlier in the election,” said Nik Nanos, chief data scientists at Nanos Research and the official pollster for CTV News and the Globe and Mail.
“With only a few days to the French and English language debates, they will be the next key juncture in the election race.”
Regional support
Regionally, Liberal support remains strongest in Ontario, Atlantic Canada and Quebec; while Conservative support is the strongest in the Prairies and British Columbia.
In seat-rich Ontario the Conservatives are at 37 per cent -- versus the Liberals who are at 52 per cent.
In the Prairies, the Conservatives continue to dominate with 59 per cent of those surveyed backing them, versus 28 per cent for the Liberals; and in B.C., the Conservative lead at 42 per cent has decreased with the Liberals now at 40 per cent
The Liberals continue their strong lead in Quebec and are at 45 per cent, compared with the Conservatives at 21. The Bloc Quebecois are in second place at 24 per cent.
The Liberal lead in the Atlantic has now increased to 17 per cent, with 56 per cent of those surveyed backing them, versus 39 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP are far behind in the region at four per cent.
Who is preferred prime minister?
When it comes to whom Canadians prefer as prime minister, Carney has a comfortable lead with a 16-point advantage, with 50 per cent choosing him over Poilievre, who sits at 34 per cent.
By gender and age
A gender breakdown of Nanos tracking shows women continue to be more likely to vote Liberal than men. Fifty-two per cent of women surveyed said they would support the Liberals, compared with 29 per cent who’d vote Conservative. Twelve per cent of women back the NDP.
Meanwhile, the number of men who said they would vote Liberal is at 38 per cent, compared with 47 for the Conservatives. Only six per cent of men surveyed would vote NDP.
Conservatives continue to do better than the Liberals among voters under 35, with a five per cent advantage in that age range, while the Liberals do better among older voters. Fifty-two per cent of those aged 55 and up said they would back the Liberals, versus 34 for the Conservatives.
For those 35 to 54, Conservatives are at 40 per cent, versus 45 per cent for the Liberals.
Methodology
CTV-Globe and Mail/Nanos Research tracking survey, April 11 to 13, 2025, n=1,285, accurate 2.7 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.
