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‘Toronto will look like a Christmas card,’ climatologist David Phillips makes Dec. 25 forecast prediction

Group of people walking in Toronto's Riverdale Park on Dec. 23, 2024. (Corey Baird / CTV News Toronto)

If you’ve been dreaming of a white Christmas, you’re in luck.

“Our dreams have come true. We’re going to have a white Christmas,” David Phillips, senior climatologist with Environment Canada, told CTV News Toronto Monday.

Phillips says a white Christmas is defined by having at least two centimetres of snow on the ground and this year, Toronto has a good chance of snow coverage.

“The snow forecast in the two days before Christmas Day will bring the two centimetres of snow required for a white Christmas,” he said. “In total, the Toronto area is forecast to receive five to 10 centimetres of snowfall Monday afternoon and night.”

“Flurries Tuesday will refresh that white look and allow it to hold through the night.”

Phillips noted that although snow will fall Monday and Tuesday it won’t “bring much misery with it” because storm conditions are not expected.

The senior climate scientist added that despite the temperature forecast to climb above zero degrees Christmas Day, it will not melt the snow.

“One degree will not melt things, only soften them up to make good packing snow.”

White Christmases have become increasingly rare in the GTA over the last decade. According to Phillips, 40 to 50 years ago there used to be a 68 per cent chance of snow around Christmastime. Now, he says that number is down to about 40 per cent.

“It’s not something that is always a sure thing,” Phillips said. “In the last 10 years, there have been seven green Christmases and only three white ones.”

“This year, it’s in the bag.”

Also in the forecast for Christmas Day according to Phillips is sun, no precipitation and comfortable temperatures.

“When you wake up Christmas morning, Toronto will look like a Christmas card.”

“It’s going to put a lot of people in a good frame of mind.”