Ontario needs more than one million university graduates to meet its labour market needs over the next decade, a new report suggests.
Stokes Economics conducted the research on behalf of the Council of Ontario Universities. It sought to project the number of students that will be needed to fill job openings in careers that typically require, or prefer, a university education —careers like finance, health care, science and technology. In these streams alone, that amounts to roughly 56,000 graduates per year to fit the demand, according to the report.
“Failure to meet the demand for increased university graduates poses a structural risk to Ontario’s economic growth and long-term prosperity,” the report reads.
The biggest need is in science, technology, engineering and math (STEM)-related occupations, with a demand of 212,980 graduates from 2026 to 2035, or an average of roughly 21,300 students per year. University grads in STEM, the report says, will spearhead the “AI revolution” in Ontario by developing new technologies or ensuring AI is safely rolled out.
The report says STEM grads will also be “critical” for furthering innovation in various sectors, like advanced manufacturing, cybersecurity and life sciences.
University graduates with majors in health sciences are second in demand, with roughly 149,000 students needed over the next decade, which is equivalent to 43.7 per cent of the current health workforce, according to the report.
“The ability to educate, recruit, and integrate this next generation of health professionals will be essential to meeting growing patient needs, supporting an aging population, advancing medical innovation and building a more resilient, efficient, and responsive health-care system for the future,” the report reads.
Business, finance and administration careers are next in demand, with 195,316 graduates needed to fill roles up until 2035.
Glen Jones, professor of higher education at the University of Toronto, says the report reinforces the need for more university graduates.
“The key finding, which I don’t think is a surprise, is that the number of jobs looking ahead that are going to require some form of post-secondary education, and perhaps particular university education, is going to continue to be strong,” Jones said.
The professor cautions there is a danger in predicting what the labour market will look like over the next decade and the educational needs to meet those demands. Jones points to three wildcards: dwindling immigration, the disruptive potential of AI, and economic instability.
“Much of that is geopolitical... we’re seeing changing relationships quickly and many of those relationships have implications for the labour market. Tariffs is the best example of this,” Jones said.
Demand for university education
The report notes that the number of Ontario high school students applying to a university in the province has risen by 17 per cent since 2020.
Job seekers with university degrees tend to earn higher incomes and experience lower unemployment rates, the report suggests.
Analysts point to the average unemployment rate for those aged 25 and older with a university degree (4.7 per cent over the last 35 years) and contrast that with the average unemployment rate for individuals who only have a high school diploma over the same time period (6.9 per cent).
“Universities are posed to meet this challenge but their ability to respond is shaped by policy, funding, and enrolment caps. Without proactive measures to expand capacity and align with labour market needs, shortages will intensify,” the report reads.
The province has previously committed to an investment of $1.7 billion to create 70,000 new postsecondary spaces. The investment is part of Ontario’s $6.4 billion postsecondary funding model over the next four years, which the province says will aid students’ access to education.
Rob Kristofferson, President of the Ontario Confederation of University Faculty Associations (OCUFA), tells CTV News Toronto this investment won’t bring the province out of “last place,” as universities require $3 billion annually to reach the national average.
“We know that an Ontario university education is in high demand and is highly valued by Ontario employers,” Kristofferson said in an emailed statement.
“That’s why it’s essential that the government provide the long-term, stable funding that will be required to sustain our sector for the next 10 years and beyond.”
Kristofferson also pointed to the cuts to the the Ontario Student Assistance Program (OSAP), with grants now capped at 25 per cent.
“If they are stuck with immense student debt, they can’t participate fully in the economy—with negative effects for all Ontarians," Kristofferson said.
“To support our economy and culture in Ontario, the government must fund universities adequately and support students to reach their full potential in all areas of study—not just in the short term, but for the long haul."
