OTTAWA - Conservative star candidate Julian Fantino is out in front of his Liberal opponent in the key federal byelection in Vaughan, Ont.
The former Ontario Provincial Police commissioner has a six percentage point lead over Liberal Tony Genco with over a third of polls reporting.
The Tories are hoping Fantino can snatch the riding from the Liberals, who've held it for 22 years.
A Fantino victory would give the Conservatives another beachhead in the Toronto area -- the last Liberal fortress in the country -- with a general election possible this spring. A loss would leave them to rethink their strategy as they continue to seek an elusive majority.
In Winnipeg North, New Democrat Kevin Chief is in a see-saw battle with Liberal challenger Kevin Lamoureux -- a popular former MLA. The two are in a virtual tie with over half the polls in.
The riding was held for the NDP for 13 years by Judy Wasylycia-Leis until she quit to make an unsuccessful run for the Winnipeg mayoralty. She took a whopping 62 per cent of the vote in 2008.
The Conservatives easily won the Manitoba riding of Dauphin--Swan River--Marquette, which they've held for 13 years. Tory Robert Sopuck has 59 per cent of the vote with half of polls reporting.
If Vaughan falls to the Tories, Liberal insiders concede it bodes ill for other Toronto MPs who hung on by fewer than 3,000 votes in the 2008 election. Ken Dryden, Joe Volpe, Ruby Dhalla, Paul Szabo, Andrew Kania, Rob Oliphant and Mark Holland are among those considered vulnerable.
The Conservatives have already picked off three of the seven ridings adjacent to Vaughan and they've steadily closed the gap with the Liberals in the riding over the last several elections.
It would be a huge disappointment to the Tories if the high-profile Fantino -- a prize catch in a riding with a large Italian constituency -- proves unable to snag Vaughan.
A victory by Genco, a local business leader, would signal that the long-awaited Tory breakthrough in Toronto remains elusive. That could dampen Prime Minister Stephen Harper's chances of winning his coveted majority.
