U.S. Donald Trump tariffs: what Ontario cities will feel it most

U.S. President Donald Trump’s impending tariffs will severely impact several cities across southwestern Ontario, according to recent data from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.

The business association recently crunched the numbers to see what cities across the country are the most vulnerable to Trump’s tariffs, while also noting the extent of which municipalities depend on U.S. exports.

Saint John, New Brunswick (first) and Calgary, Alberta (second) topped the list but Ontario cities accounted for five of the top 10 and six of the top 15 most impacted locations.

“Our modelling estimates that automotive and parts manufacturing would be the second-most negatively impacted sector by U.S. tariffs,” the Canadian Chamber of Commerce says, noting energy exports will be the hardest hit by levies.

Windsor ranked third across Canada and is the most vulnerable city to Trump’s tariffs in Ontario, according to the findings. It has a tariff exposure index of 61.7 per cent, which is based on a location’s excess trade intensity and export dependence on the U.S. The city is home to major automotive assembly plants for Ford and Stellantis with consistent two-way trade with Michigan, which is right across the Ambassador Bridge border crossing.

The region from Kitchener to Waterloo, Brantford and Guelph, Ontario placed fourth through sixth due to the agricultural exports, auto parts production and other advanced manufacturing in those cities, according to the study.

Hamilton came in eighth as a “tariff hot spot” in Canada due to its steel production facilities, ArcelorMittal Dofasco and Stelco, which exports both as a raw input and used in construction, automotive production and other manufacturing.

Trump has long threatened 25 per cent across-the-board tariffs on Canadian imports, with a 10 per cent levy on Canadian energy. The date for when these tariffs will go into effect has been pushed back until at least March, 4.

Despite putting these sweeping tariffs on pause, Trump signed executive orders Monday to impose 25 per cent tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports into the U.S., including Canadian products, starting March 12. This will drastically impact Canada–especially if the additional planned tariffs stack on top of this levy—as the Canadian Steel Producers Association says there’s $20 billion in steel trade between the two countries with 40 per cent of Canada’s steel imports coming from the U.S.

Ontario is the second-largest primary metal manufacturer in the country, with nearly half of the province’s industry employees working in iron and steel manufacturing.

Recent data from Statistics Canada reveals an estimated 68.3 per cent of jobs in automotive manufacturing industries depend on U.S. demand with the highest concentration of jobs located in southern Ontario, particularly in Toronto (27.7 per cent of all auto workers), Kitchener-Waterloo-Barrie (19.8 per cent) and Windsor-Sarnia (14.8 per cent) in January. On top of that, Windsor-Sarnia accounts for 38.3 per cent of employment within the industry.

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce ranked Toronto 27th among 41 Canadian cities, with a tariff exposure index of negative 8.4 per cent. That said, the city heavily depends on U.S. exports. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce notes there are 9,934 exporters from Toronto to the U.S., based on data from 2023, raking in just shy of $82 million in exports to its southern neighbour.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford appealed to American business leaders in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday, imploring them to contact the commander-in-chief and Republican lawmakers on Canada’s behalf.

“Let’s stick together and please get the message to President Trump – this is not a good idea for both countries,” Ford said in front of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

Here are the 15 most vulnerable Canadian cities to Trump’s tariffs: