Just two months after voting in the provincial election, Ontarians will head back to the polls on April 28 to elect the next federal government.
It’s somewhat rare for a federal election to fall on the same year as an Ontario election. It’s only ever happened a handful of times before in Canadian history, with the most recent occurrence in 2011.
Unofficial results shared with CTV News Toronto by Elections Ontario showed that 5,023,587 residents, or 45.4 per cent of registered voters, cast their ballot in the latest provincial election on Feb. 27.
That’s only a slight improvement over the 2022 Ontario general election – which had the worst voter turnout in provincial history at 44 per cent – with factors like winter weather and a less-than-competitive race potentially contributing to the poor showing.
But while voter turnout for provincial elections in Ontario has been dwindling in recent cycles, data shows that Ontarians will come out to vote in stronger numbers for a prime minister.
According to Statistics Canada, in the last four federal elections, the voter turnout in Ontario was 70 per cent in 2011 (five months after the provincial election that year), 76 per cent in 2015, 77 per cent in 2019, and 75 per cent in 2021.
Could factors like timing of this election, U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to annex Canada, and a close race between the federal frontrunners bring out Ontarians like never before?
Snap election may help with voter fatigue
The April 28 vote is being held months before the scheduled date laid out by election laws.
Before Liberal Leader Mark Carney first announced that the snap election would take place on April 28 last month, Ottawa wasn’t scheduled to hold an election until October 2025, at the latest.
Similarly, when Premier Doug Ford called Ontarians to the polls in February, he moved up the previously scheduled election timeline by more than a year.
The quick succession of elections may have voters feeling a sense of déjà vu as they head to the polls later this month. But the back-to-back snap elections may actually alleviate the feeling of voter burnout typical of a months-long campaign, according to John Beebe, the head of the Democratic Engagement Exchange at Toronto Metropolitan University.
“In that sense, the snap elections actually help mitigate that because you don’t have as long a lead up, and we don’t have this overwhelming amount of information coming into people,” the political science professor told CTV News Toronto in an interview.
Also, because it’s relatively “easy” for most Canadians to vote and there were no major issues with the Feb. 27 election, Ontarians are more likely to head the polls twice in two month’s time due to the convenience of Canada’s voting infrastructure at a federal and provincial level, Beebe said.
“It takes 10 minutes to vote, like the physical act of voting. It can be really quick, and our election management bodies do a great job of making it easy to vote. So that sort of inconvenience factor is really mitigated in terms of having back-to-back elections.”
In an email to CTV News Toronto, Elections Canada says that it keeps in regular contact with its provincial counterparts to share best practices as electoral agencies, such as updating voter lists, to make the voting experience as streamlined as possible.
Could Trump’s annexation threats, tariffs be a factor?
Much like the provincial election, the federal election will play out against the backdrop of U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to annex Canada.
Since Ontarians voted in February, Trump officially started his trade war with Canada in March, with a blanket 25 per cent tariff on all goods, which was later clawed back to only include items not compliant with the North American trade pact.
Since then, he’s introduced a 25 per cent tariff on steel and aluminum and a 25 per cent tariff on auto imports.
More recently, Trump has toned down his talk of making Canada the “51st state” and has referred to Carney as Prime Minister, instead of the pejorative “Governor” label he bestowed on former prime minister Justin Trudeau.
However, polls suggest that the threat remains top of mind for Canadians.
“This election is being described as a sort of ‘critical existential threat moment’ for Canada, which is driving interest overall, in the conversation and in the issues that are being addressed here,” Beebe said.
“What is the future for Canada? How do we define ourselves as a country? And if the candidates and the parties are able to mobilize people around that framing, that we need to stand up for Canada and get engaged in this election, I think we could see record voter turnout in the modern era,” he said, noting that national voter turnout has not been above 70 per cent in over 30 years.
CTV News Toronto asked Elections Canada if it typically sees a higher or lower voter turnout in the years where both a federal and provincial election is held, to which it said: “Many things can affect turnout (ex: issues that the public is following, a close race, candidates in a specific riding, weather). It is difficult to break down those factors.”
The significance of a close race
Beebe said, as it stands, there’s more “interest” in this federal election over its provincial counterpart due, in part, to the lack of competitiveness in the former and the fact that the Ontario vote wasn’t seen as a “change election.”
“Ford, you know, some people certainly have strong feelings about him, but it’s not clear that the other party leaders were able to sort of distinguish themselves in powerful ways,” he said, noting that Ford appeared to have “wrapped” up the election before it even started, which may have contributed to the lower voter turnout.
That may not be the case in the federal election, which polls suggest could be much closer.
“It is easier for federal leaders to get media attention and get their message out. So, I think that’s another factor that could impact turnout.”
