OTTAWA — The Canadian government is in a better position to manage trade negotiations with the next American president than it was the last time it signed a deal with the U.S. and Mexico, Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said as Americans headed to the polls Tuesday.
U.S. voters are choosing between starkly different visions of their country’s future with either former president Donald Trump or Vice-President Kamala Harris. Whoever wins the White House this year will be in charge when the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement is reviewed in 2026.
The “Team Canada” approach the Liberal government launched when negotiating with the first Trump administration is already back in play. Joly said the government is ready to work with premiers, mayors, the business sector and unions to look out for Canadian interests.
She also said she’s been speaking with other foreign ministers and world leaders about how to work with the next president.
“So we have an approach that is very broad and we are very unique in the world. We have the strongest and, I think, most important relationship as a country with the U.S.,” Joly said.
Amid a fraught political atmosphere in the United States, there are worries of politically motivated violence in the wake of the results. Joly said she will not address hypothetical scenarios, but has been in communication with American counterparts on this issue.
“I’ve had many conversations with both Republicans and also Democrats, and I’m assured that there will be strong national security in the U.S.,” Joly said.
For Canada, an impact on trade is the most immediate concern, but several cabinet ministers say they’ve been laying the groundwork for any outcome for months.
Trump and Harris have both campaigned on protectionist policies, which could pose a major threat to Canada’s economy.
Trump has pledged to bring in a 10 per cent across-the-board tariff — something the Canadian Chamber of Commerce believes could cost the Canadian economy around $30 billion per year.
In 2020, Harris was one of just 10 senators who voted against the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement. She said at the time it didn’t appropriately address climate change but more recently charged that it doesn’t protect American jobs.
Innovation Minister François-Philippe Champagne said the goal over the last several months has been to define Canada as a critical and strategic partner, particularly on economic security, as opposed to just a friendly neighbour to the north.
“The focus of our friends in the United States is national security. National security and economic security are one. I think there is a better understanding today that the strategic relationship that we have is serving North America’s national security,” Champagne said.
The two presidential candidates also differ significantly on their approach to security, in particular when it comes to the NATO alliance.
Trump has been highly critical of NATO allies — particularly those, like Canada, that are not meeting the agreed-upon spending target — accusing them of failing to pull their weight and calling the alliance “obsolete.”
Canada does not plan to reach the target of spending two per cent of GDP on defence until at least 2032.
Harris has said her administration would uphold mutual defence pacts and continue steadfast support for Ukraine.
Defence Minister Bill Blair said he believes either administration will recognize the work Canada is doing to boost defence spending.
“It takes time to build new battleships, it takes time to build the new submarines we’re going to require, and deliver the airplanes we need,” Blair said on his way into Tuesday’s cabinet meeting.
“I have great confidence in the institutions of the United States, including our relationship with the State Department and their military.”
Joly said Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government has experience dealing with three different U.S. administrations over the last decade.
The government has also built relationships with both Republicans and Democrats in preparation for whoever takes over the White House.
It’s not a given that a Trudeau-led government will represent Canada in the trade talks, however. There is a possibility that a precarious Parliament could trigger a snap election before the negotiations start in earnest.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said on social media Tuesday a Conservative government would “drive a hard bargain” with Washington on softwood lumber and buy-American policies.
In question period, Poilievre attacked the Liberals for failing to get a deal with the U.S. to end softwood lumber tariffs and accused the Liberals of capitulating to the Americans during the last round of trade negotiations.
“We stood up against (Donald Trump) when he wanted to renegotiate NAFTA and it was the Conservatives, including Stephen Harper, who were encouraging us to back down and not offend the Americans,” Trudeau said in reply in French.
“On the contrary, we stood up for ourselves we protected supply management, protected steel and aluminum workers, we protected jobs right across this country.”
David Cohen, the U.S. ambassador to Canada, said he sees the trade relationship continuing with little disruption no matter who wins the election.
“I’ve not heard any president in my lifetime, and I’ve certainly not heard either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris say, we want to blow up this $3.4 billion-a-day trade relationship that exists between the United States and Canada,” Cohen said.
“So, the Team Canada approach that Canada’s been using, I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, is a powerful outreach mechanism which is useful to doing outreach and communication with a variety of stakeholders and constituents who all have a role to play in nurturing and growing the U.S.-Canada relationship independent of the presidential election.”
Cohen added that Canada is the biggest trading partner for 36 states and he doubts any administration would want to jeopardize the millions of jobs tied to that cross-border trade.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.
Laura Osman and David Baxter, The Canadian Press