Canadian travel to the United States has begun to drop as the North American trade war hits America’s tourism industry.
The number of Canadian residents returning from trips to the U.S. has dropped 6.4 per cent between December and January this year, according to the latest seasonally adjusted data. That’s not counting any trends that may have emerged following U.S. import tariffs activating in early March.
One industry monitor recently found that demand for Canada-U.S. flights has “collapsed,” with cross-border bookings down more than 70 per cent for this spring and summer.
“This sharp drop suggests that travellers are holding off on making reservations, likely due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute,” wrote John Grant, chief analyst for OAG Aviation Worldwide, in a Wednesday blog post.
“Unfortunately, the law of unintended consequences is once again impacting the airline industry adding to what had already become a softening market.”
Growth in visitor spending is beginning to slow, according to a California non-profit that cites an expected decline of 15 per cent in Canadian travel to the United States, this year.
“International visitors are critical to the health and vitality of California’s travel industry,” wrote Visit California President Caroline Beteta in a March release shared with CTVNews.ca.
Canada is the United States’ number-one source of international visitors, according to the U.S. Travel Association, with 20.4 million visits tallied last year.
A 10 per cent drop in Canada-U.S. travel would risk 14,000 American job losses and US$2.1 billion in lost spending, the association estimates.
“The travel industry is seeing concerning trends in both domestic and international-inbound travel,” the association wrote in a statement to CTVNews.ca Thursday, citing as contributing factors a strong U.S. dollar, but slowing American economy, visa delays, concerns about safety and travel restrictions and “a question of America’s welcomeness.”
“These challenges are real and demand decisive action,” the statement reads.
‘Cancelling left and right’
Demand for U.S. tour packages has fallen off in recent months, companies say.
“People aren’t willing to go to the States right now. They just don’t want to and they’ve been cancelling left and right,” said Karl Gilder, owner of Travac Tours, in a recent interview with CTV News Ottawa.
“Our New York trip, which is our signature product to the U.S., over the years we were averaging 25 to 30 buses a year and we’re down to zero. It’s a big chunk.”
Another tour operator, this time in New Brunswick, has cut all U.S. destinations from its offerings amid fading demand.
“The people are just not interested,” PT Tours owner Phyllis LeBlanc told CTV News Atlantic, citing high exchange rates and distrust for Trump as contributing factors.
Cancellations, slowed bookings and negative feedback for U.S. travel were reported by more than 80 per cent of surveyed members of the International Inbound Travel Association, the U.S. non-profit wrote in an emailed statement to CTV News Friday.
“Both our destination and tour operator members have heard a growing sentiment that Canadians do not want to travel to the U.S. right now,” the statement reads. “There is so much to discover and enjoy on both sides of the border, we are hopeful that political rhetoric and policy will not have long-term downturn effects.”
The drop in Canadian demand is “catastrophic,” according to Matt Levy, owner of New York City tour company Spread Love Tours.
“In 2024, Canadian high school class trips to New York City made up $35,000 of my gross profit. This year, it’s $5,000 and declining,” Levy told CTV News Ottawa.
Early in the trade war, Quebec Education Minister Bernard Drainville suggested schools consider cancelling their trips to New York and other U.S. destinations in favour of excursions on this side of the border.
School or not, some appear to be taking that advice.
Canadian AirBnB searches for domestic stays have surged roughly 20 per cent, according to a Wednesday statement from the company, a trend that “suggests that Canadians are not only interested in travelling in their own backyard, but also supporting Canadian hosts on Airbnb while doing so.”
Phyllis LeBlanc says that the shift toward trips within Canada may last.
“Once you start buying local, you’re not going to change your mind,” she said.
With files from CTV News’ Tyler Fleming, Hafsa Arif and The Canadian Press
