OTTAWA — Prime Minister Mark Carney has executed a clean sweep of all three of Monday night’s federal byelections, snatching away a Quebec riding from Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and holding onto two Liberal strongholds in Ontario and British Columbia to solidify his majority government.
The major victory of the night came for the Liberals in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, Que., seeing the Liberals pick up a seat from an embattled Poilievre. The party also handily held onto Beaches–East York, Ont., and North Vancouver–Capilano, B.C.
Heading into Monday night, the governing Liberals held 170 seats, after a series of resignations in recent months. The trio of wins has moved the party back up to 173, one seat more than required to keep their majority foothold in the House of Commons.
With a majority government, the Liberals could hold onto power until 2029 without the risk of being toppled by the opposition, because the numbers are on their side during votes of confidence in the House. Reaffirming this power comes at a critical time, with MPs returning to the House of Commons for the fall sitting on Sept. 21.
These byelections took place amid an increasingly acrimonious trade war with the United States, and as results started trickling in Monday evening, CTV News’ political panellists all emphasized how much the events of the last few weeks on the Canada-U.S. trade file — and specifically the actions and comments of U.S. President Donald Trump — drove the vote.
“Trump is shaking the table, I think, in every part of this country, in politics from sea to sea, including Quebec,” said Kory Teneycke, a former director of communications for prime minister Stephen Harper.
From the softwood lumber sector in British Columbia, to the agriculture and manufacturing sectors in Quebec, the effects of tariffs are being directly felt. The downtown Toronto riding, meanwhile, sits along Lake Ontario, which in the U.S. is now known as Lake America, a reference to which the victorious candidate there made clear reference in his victory speech Monday night.
“I think it’s a huge factor,” said Scott Reid, a former communications director to prime minister Paul Martin.
Though, tonight’s results won’t be the last test for the parties, as the prime minister still has six other byelections to call in the coming months to fill current and upcoming vacancies.
Here’s everything you need to know about the results in these three ridings.
Liberals pick up Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, Que.
Voters in the closely watched Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, Que., have flipped the riding from Conservative to Liberal, securing a stronger-than-expected result for the federal government.
After the close margin of victory in last year’s general election, the riding was considered the one to watch in Monday’s byelections.
Liberal Daniel Gobeil, a local farmer and past chair of the Quebec Dairy Producers association, has now won the riding. With all polls reporting, he secured 51.3 per cent of the vote.
Seen to be in close contention to pick up the riding, the Bloc Quebecois candidate Caroline Dubé placed second with 32.9 per cent of the vote.
Conservative candidate Régis Gaudreault has claimed around 13 per cent of the vote, pushing the Conservatives from first place in last year’s general election to a distant third-place spot following today’s byelection.
Monday’s vote was to replace the seat vacated by Conservative Richard Martel, who had held it since a 2018 byelection, and was appointed by Carney to the Senate early last month.
In an interview with CTV News last month, former Conservative cabinet minister James Moore said while the race was anyone’s game, it could be “enormously problematic” for the Conservatives if the seat flipped to the Liberals.
“If the Liberals leapfrog from third to first, and the Conservative slide from first to third, that’s going to be a real problem,” Moore said. “Certainly for Pierre Poilievre, you have to explain.”
Speaking during CTV News’ special election coverage Monday night, Reid said the election results were “a beating” at the expense of both the Bloc and the Conservatives.
“They’re going to have to start from scratch as a matter of electoral strategy,” Reid said, referencing the Conservatives. “What they’re doing ain’t working. What Pierre Poilievre has going, he ain’t playing, it sure ain’t playing in Quebec. It requires a big rethink.”
Teneycke also categorized Monday night’s result as a “beatdown,” chalking it up to low polling numbers for Poilievre and “a leadership that’s under siege” from MPs leaving his caucus.
Teneycke also pointed to Trump and the increasingly tense trade war with the United States as “incredible tailwinds” for Carney and the Liberals.
Beaches–East York, Ont. stays Liberal
In Beaches–East York, Ont., the Liberals have held onto a riding largely considered a stronghold for the party.
As of early Tuesday morning with 97 per cent of polls reporting, Liberal Tanveer Shahnawaz had secured 55 per cent of the vote.
Running against Shahnawaz were NDP Shannon Devine, a union and labour advocate, who secured 26 per cent of the vote, while Conservative Jim Syrbos, a local coffee shop owner, received around 15 per cent of the vote.
Shahnawaz previously served as the constituency office manager for now-former Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith, who held the seat from 2015, until he resigned early last month after a failed run at the Ontario Liberal leadership.
“It is going to now be the honour of a lifetime to represent the only home I’ve ever known as your next member of Parliament,” Shahnawaz said in his victory speech Monday night.
“I am not here, my team is not here, without the hundreds and hundreds of volunteers and members of my now-caucus colleagues and their teams from across the GTA and the province,” he also said, adding that based on the thousands of conversations his campaign has had with voters over the last few weeks, he’ll be prioritizing building community and supporting the prime minister’s nation-building efforts.
“It’s a great time to be a Liberal in Canada,” Shahnawaz said.
Aside from the four-year period from 2011–2015 when it was held by the NDP, Liberals have represented the riding since 1997.
PMO staffer claims North Vancouver–Capilano, B.C.
In North Vancouver–Capilano, B.C., voters also re-elected a Liberal, as expected. The riding has been held by the Liberals since 2015.
With 86 per cent of polls reporting as of early Tuesday morning ET, Liberal Braeden Caley won the race with around 58 per cent of the vote.
Running against Caley were Conservative Stephen Curran, a lawyer who also ran in the riding during last year’s general election, who placed second with 28 per cent of the vote. Green candidate Shelley Luce came a surprise third with around nine per cent, while NDP candidate Stephen Tweedale, a community activist and organizer, garnered less than four per cent of the vote.
While he’s a relative unknown in the riding, Caley is a familiar face on Parliament Hill, having previously worked as a deputy chief of staff to Carney.
The riding has largely voted with the government for decades, held by Conservatives when Harper was in office, and flipping to the Liberals when former prime minister Justin Trudeau formed government.
Candidates ran to replace longtime Jonathan Wilkinson, who resigned after he was appointed ambassador to the European Union in the spring.
