Doug Ford and the Ontario Progressive Conservative party appear to have a sizable lead among voters as speculation continues to build about a potential early election call, a new poll suggests.
The Liaison Strategies poll of 1,245 Ontario voters found that Ford and the Tories had the support of 40 per cent of respondents who are decided or leaning, compared to 27 per cent for the Liberals and 21 per cent for the NDP. The Green party were in fourth at six per cent.
The Tories support was up two points from a similar Liaison Strategies poll conducted in July while the support for Bonnie Crombie and the Liberals was down two points.
It should be noted that about one fifth of poll respondents (21 per cent) remain undecided.
Among all voters, Ford and the Tories has the support of 33 per cent of respondents compared to 21 per cent for the Liberals, 16 per cent for the NDP and four per cent for the Greens.
"As early elections speculation continues the Ford PCs are in a comfortable lead and would earn a majority government if the election were held today," David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies, said in a press release accompanying the poll results. "The PCs are doing well in most of Ontario, though they are in a statistical tie for first in the North, Toronto and South Central. That being said, their Toronto numbers are an improvement from where we have found them in the past few months and they are leading in the 905."
The province's next fixed election date isn't until June 2026 but Ford has dodged questions about whether he will commit to that timeline, prompting some to speculate about whether an election could be called sooner.
The Liaison Strategies poll found that a higher percentage of respondents had a favourable opinion of Ford (28 per cent) than Liberal Liberal Bonnie Crombie (27 per cent), NDP Leader Marit Stiles (24 per cent) or Green Leader Mike Schreiner (23 per cent).
However, the poll suggested that a higher proportion of respondents had an unfavourable opinion of Ford (65 per cent) when compared to Crombie (42 per cent), Stiles (22 per cent) and Schreiner (19 per cent).
Support for the Tories was the highest in southwestern Ontario where they have a 19-point lead on the NDP but the party is also competitive in Toronto, where they trail the Liberals by just three points (a statistical tie). In the 905 region outside of Toronto, the Tories had the support of 45 per cent of respondents compared to 39 per cent for the Liberals.
The poll was conducted on behalf of the National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada through Interactive Voice Recording on Aug, 19 and 20. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.71 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 but is higher for sub samples.
