Outlets across the United States have been crunching numbers, parsing polls and working their magic models to predict the outcome of Tuesday’s presidential election.
After running their final simulations before election day, overall, the consensus seems to be:
It’s a coin flip.
Most simulations have both candidates in a deadlock, each winning close to 50 per cent of the time.
That’s just the outcome of the race, and not necessarily how the electoral votes are going to fall. Despite what these models are predicting, some outlets are warning “the race isn’t necessarily going to be close just because the polls are.”
Below is an election night roundup of what various American outlets are forecasting.
FiveThirtyEight
In their simulations, ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight has Harris winning 50 per cent of the time and Trump winning 49 per cent of the time.
Decision Desk HQ
The Hill’s Decision Desk HQ has Trump winning 54 per cent of the time.
The Economist
The Economist has Harris winning 56 per cent of the time, and Trump at 43 per cent.
Nate Silver
Nate Silver’s simulations are about as close as you can get, with Harris winning 50.015 per cent of the time.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball
Some outlets predict the breakdown of the electoral college instead of giving a percentage chance. The Center of Politics at UVA published Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which predicts the Harris winning with 276 electoral votes compared to Trump’s 262.
