Doug Ford and his Progressive Conservative Party will be returning to Queen’s Park with a third straight majority mandate after claiming victory in a snap election called on the threat of U.S. tariffs that could devastate Ontario’s economy.
Ford’s PC party appeared on track to capture 80 seats as of early Friday morning, which would be an improvement on the 79 they held going into the campaign.
The NDP were poised to capture 27 seats, allowing the party to return to Queen’s Park as Ontario’s official opposition once again. The Liberals improved upon their showing from 2022 with 14 seats but Leader Bonnie Crombie lost her riding in Mississauga East-Cooksville.
“Together, we have secured a strong, historic third majority mandate to protect Ontario,” Ford told his supporters to raucous applause at a victory party in Etobicoke Thursday night.
He thanked his supporters and his family, as well as the other party leaders.
“We can disagree on policy, but there’s no question, no question at all; each one of them loves our province, and each one of them loves Canada, the greatest country on Earth.”
He added that he hopes he’s proven he can “work with anyone” to get things done because that’s what will be required.
“I will work with every level of government and every political stripe because fighting back against Donald Trump, standing up for Canada – it will take a full Team Ontario effort, it will take a full Team Canada effort.”
He added that “Canada will never ever be the 51st state.”
Before heading to his victory party, Ford told CP24 that he will “fight tooth and nail against Donald Trump, I’ll promise you that.”
Tariff threat dominated
Ford called the snap winter election – Ontario’s first February election in more than 140 years – saying he needed a “strong mandate” from voters to deal with the threat of U.S. tariffs that could devastate Ontario’s economy.
Polls showed for months that Ford’s PCs had the wind at their backs and the campaign did little to change that. Nightly tracking conducted for CTV News by Nanos Research showed the PCs with a roughly 15-point lead among decided voters throughout the election.
The writ was dropped just as $200 rebate cheques –announced in November – were mailed out to Ontarians.
Ford opened his campaign, with its “Protect Ontario” slogan in Windsor, Ont., under the Ambassador Bridge to the U.S. setting the theme for his re-election effort. During the campaign, he twice travelled to Washington, D.C. to lobby U.S. officials and promote Ontario, leading opposition parties to charge that he was blurring the line between premier and candidate in violation of the long-standing caretaker convention.
Ford defended the trip, saying it was important for him to show up and present a united front with other Canadian leaders. Still, his campaign deleted a video post that blended his campaign slogan with footage from his Washington trip. The campaign defended the post, but said they deleted it “out of an abundance of caution.”
- FULL COVERAGE: CP24.com’s Ontario Election site
- PROMISE TRACKER: What the leaders have said they will do for Ontarians
- EXPLAINER: What is at stake for Toronto in the Ontario election
While the other parties tried to reframe the election around issues such as health care, education and questionable deals, such as the Ontario Place redevelopment, those issues failed to sufficiently move the needle with voters amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats.
PC Campaign Manager Kory Teneycke acknowledged the PCs ran the election in “unusual” circumstances.
“This sort of economic crisis, perhaps even sovereignty crisis, associated with Donald Trump’s presidency is sort of something I think most people didn’t anticipate and it’s really dominated a lot of the campaign, and that’s pretty unusual,” Teneycke said.
In addition to his key promise to defend Ontario against the tariff threats, Ford vowed to plow ahead with other promises, such as widening highways, digging a tunnel under Highway 401 and expanding GO Transit.
Leaders claim gains
Speaking with her supporters Thursday night, Crombie said she knows the result is disappointing for Liberals, but she nevertheless sounded upbeat as she vowed to stay on as leader.
“I know tonight isn’t exactly the result we’re looking for, but you should be very, very proud of what we did tonight,” Crombie said. “People counted us out. They said the Ontario Liberal Party was dead. Tonight, you proved them wrong.”
She hailed the return of the Liberals to official party status and called it a “building block” the party can grow from.
She acknowledged that voters have given Ford another mandate, but added that “many of you are asking for a strong voice to hold him accountable as premier, and you can count on me.”
Speaking with her supporters, Stiles acknowledged the result was disappointing for her party, but said it was concern about Donald Trump’s tariffs that drove people to re-elect the PCs.
“Now the results aren’t everything that we hoped for, but the people of Ontario made their choice. They’ve re elected the government, hoping it will help protect them from Donald Trump and his tariffs, and they’ve entrusted me and my team to do a different but also very important job.”
Stiles congratulated Ford and said she and her party stand ready to do whatever they can to help combat the “real” threat posed by Trump.
“My message to the people of Ontario is, in the face of Trump, we will stand together. And we, the Ontario NDP, will stand up for the people.”
She vowed at thew same time to continue to hold the government to account.
Toward the end of the election, Stiles and Crombie – both leading their parties into an election for the first time – increasingly turned their firepower on one another as they failed to close the gap with Ford. During a televised debate, Crombie appealed to NDP voters to back her, saying Stiles believes that “money grows on trees.”
For her part, Stiles told past Liberal voters that they should turn to her, accusing Crombie of taking questionable contributions from wealthy donors. Crombie maintained that none of the contributions she accepted broke any rules.
Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner, speaking to his supporters, paid tribute to “a lot of cool hands and warm hearts out on the campaign trail” during the election.
“Together, we held Doug Ford’s feet to the fire and delivered for our communities, and so I look forward to teaming up with you again to go back to Queen’s Park and represent Green voices across this province and to stand up for what’s right for our communities and the people of Ontario.”
He had special mention for Aislinn Clancy, who successfully defended a second seat she won for the Greens in a 2023 byelection in Kitchener Centre, as well as Matt Richter, who came within 2,500 votes of PC candidate Graydon Smith in Parry Sound-Muskoka.
What comes next
During the campaign, Ford promised some $40 billion in new spending. Those promises include a $1.8-billion plan to connect every Ontarian to primary care within four years; $2 billion for municipal infrastructure to support housing construction; and billions of dollars to bolster businesses and workers in the face of the tariff threats.
The PCs promised to remove tolls from a portion of Highway 407; build new GO train lines and expand the commuter service; and to dig a massive tunnel for cars and transit under Highway 401 in the GTA.
The party also promised to build 30 new schools and expand 15 others at a cost of $1.3 billion.
Those commitments will likely mean a deviation from their previous plan to balance the budget.
Weather may have impacted voter turnout
Political observers had cautioned that the weather could lead to historically low voter turnout, especially in the wake of a major snowstorm that swept across the province last week.
Mother Nature also delivered a messy mix of winter weather on election day, with snow in the morning and rain in the afternoon across the Greater Toronto Area. A winter weather travel advisory was in effect for much of the province throughout the day, with some parts of Ontario under snowfall warnings as well.
However the official voter turnout won’t be known until all results are formally compiled by Elections Ontario.
The independent government agency said ahead of election day that it was working closely with municipal officials to ensure voting places were easy to access, no matter the weather.
Voting hours were extended at nine polling stations due to local problems.
About six per cent of voters took part in three days of advance voting.
